Agent-Based Modeling in Intelligence Analysis

Abstract

The United States Intelligence Community (IC) was born out of the experiences and organization of the Office of Strategic Services during World War II and became a permanent fixture of the national security establishment with the passage of the National Security Act of 1947. Since its inception, there has been a strong fascination with the secret aspects of its work, particularly with respect to the clandestine collection of information and covert efforts to influence foreign governments, and to undermine rival intelligence services. By comparison, intelligence analysis, specifically the ways in which intelligence professionals develop and present assessments about the international system to policy makers, has been relatively ignored. As a result, intelligence analysis has remained largely under-theorized within the study of international relations, despite its prominent role in strategic thinking--only receiving significant attention in the aftermath of perceived failures.