Abstract:
Sea-level rise from global climate change is becoming increasingly important especially
in geographic sciences, where space and time are taken into account. Globally, the mid-
Atlantic shoreline of the United States is expected to be at greater risk than the observed
global sea-level rise due to localized sinking of the land surface. The shorebird species
Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus), an endangered species, is predicted to be
particularly at risk from the estimated rising sea levels due to their already vulnerable
breeding habitat within their distribution along the United States Atlantic coast.
Traditionally, research has examined the threats to C. melodus nesting habitats; however,
one of their most important foraging habitats, coastal wetlands, which is often depended
upon by recently hatched chicks, is preferentially at risk from future rising sea levels.
This study investigates how wetlands within C. melodus predicted suitable habitat may be
affected from rising sea levels for up to 120 years into the future (from 2006). The specific objectives are threefold: (i) parameterize a functional habitat suitability model
for C. melodus; (ii) evaluate the accuracy of the habitat suitability model in field sites;
and (iii) investigate the prospective effects of sea-level rise on wetlands within the
predicted suitable habitat of C. melodus at time intervals of 30, 60, and 120 years.
Geographic Information Systems (GIS) were used as a tool to predict future outcomes to
C. melodus wetlands foraging habitat from sea-level rise. Maps for three different
locations within Piping Plover breeding distribution (Cape May, Assateague NWR, and
Chincoteague NWR) were created showing outcomes for several sea-level rise scenarios.
Results indicate that effects from sea-level rise on C. melodus wetlands habitat vary
based on location. Two of the locations (Assateague NWR and Chincoteague NWR),
which are barrier islands, are predicted to be negatively affected from sea-level rise (73-
94% net loss for Assateague NWR and 48-90% net loss for Chincoteague NWR in 120
years), whereas the Cape May location, which is not a barrier island, is predicted to have
little to no negative impact from sea-level rise on the wetlands within Piping Plover
predicted suitable habitat. From these investigations of three locations in the mid-
Atlantic region, it is concluded that the effect of sea level rise in the future on wetlands
foraging habitat for C. melodus is site specific, with two of the three locations exhibiting
significant losses (48-94%) in habitat within 120 years. Given that this species is already
endangered, this conclusion indicates that future changes in sea level will place an
additional stress on the species.