Mason-Yale Joint Project on Computational Modeling of Complex Crises in East Africa
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Mission: To develop new agent-based spatial simulation models for analyzing scenarios of societal consequences of disasters in the East Africa region.
Principal Investigator: Dr Claudio Cioffi-Revilla, George Mason University
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Browsing Mason-Yale Joint Project on Computational Modeling of Complex Crises in East Africa by Author "Bassett, J.K."
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Item An Agent-Based Model of Climate Change and Conflict among Pastoralists in East Africa(International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (iEMSs), 2010) Hailegiorgis, A.B.; Kennedy, W.G.; Balan, G.C.; Bassett, J.K.; Gulden, T.Presented is an agent-based model of human-environment interaction and conflict in East Africa using the MASON agent-based simulation environment. The model focuses on the complex interaction of pastoral groups with their environment and other emerging external actors. The model supports the observation that increased seasonal rainfall variability and droughts create tremendous stress on pastoralists groups and challenges their long-term resilience and adaptive response mechanisms.Item An Agent-Based Model of Conflict in East Africa and the Effect of Watering Holes(Conference on Behavior Representation in Modeling and Simulation, 2010-03) Kennedy, W.G.; Hailegiorgis, A.B.; Rouleau, M.; Bassett, J.K.; Coletti, M.; Balan, G.C.; Gulden, T.An agent-based model conflict between herdsmen in east Africa using the MASON agent-based simulation environment is presented. Herders struggle to keep their herds fed and watered in a GIS-based, spatially diverse environment with data-driven seasonal cycles. The model produces realistic carrying capacity dynamics and basically plausible conflict dynamics. With the rather basic set of behaviors, herders come into conflict over limited resources and one clan is eventually eliminated. We find that greater environmental scarcity leads to faster domination by a single group. At the same time, we note that there is tremendous variability from run to run in the rate and timing of the transition from a conflict-prone, multi-clan environment to hegemony of a single group.Item MASON HerderLand: Origins of Conflict in East Africa(2010-11) Kennedy, W.G.; Hailegiorgis, A.B.; Rouleau, M.; Bassett, J.K.; Coletti, M.; Balan, G.C.; Gulden, T.; Cioffi-Revilla, C.HerderLand is an agent-based model of the people and environment in the Mandera Triangle area of Eastern Africa developed to address the causes of conflict in the area. With it we have conducted three sets of experiments varying the major environmental parameters we believed would affect conflict in the region.