Publication: Re-greening Opportunities in Northern Virginia Based on Land Cover Patterns and Social Vulnerability Criteria
Date
2023-05-19
Authors
Jankowski, Rachel
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Abstract
This research reviews a number of socio-demographic and environmental criteria in the interest of identifying suitable areas for re-greening in Northern Virginia. The study area encompasses nine county and county equivalents in Northern Virginia whose sprawling development, demographic characteristics, and historical evolution towards an urban fringe landscape places it at potential risk for adverse effects related to the urban heat island (UHI) effect. Various methods and techniques have been explored to help combat the implications of the UHI, which can result in higher-than-average heat indices, place both the natural and built environment at risk, as well as increase health impacts in local populations with known risk factors. One of the most effective and affordable mitigation techniques is the use of vegetation in the form of grasses, trees, and shrubs that help to cool urban surfaces and reduce ambient temperatures.
This premise is the basis of the research question, which asks based on a series of input criteria, where are the most vulnerable, and therefore the best suited areas within the study area for re-greening efforts? This study utilizes an adapted multi-criteria analysis technique and GIS to overlay land surface temperature, land cover change, and socio-demographic characteristics to try and identify such areas. These layers from publicly available sources such as USGS, DOE, and NLCD were pre-processed, scaled and reclassified, weighted, and added together to determine suitability scores per pixel area.
Overall, the research found a number of case study areas that scored as high candidates for re-greening, and whose spatial range aligned with expected trends related to the UHI and areas that tend to be hotter such as those that have shifted from forested to development over the course of 18 years (2001 to 2019). The research showed that these areas often exist alongside vulnerable communities as well. Pockets of re-greening suitability include areas in southeastern Prince William, Loudoun County, Manassas and Manassas Park, Alexandria, and parts of eastern Fairfax County. Some areas have major focus on economic development thus resulting in urban and suburban sprawl, while more established neighborhoods that have been developed for quite some time but whose infrastructure tends to leave communities more at risk for heat related issues. The results were highly dependent on the unique status of the region, but this research found that there are many hectares worth of suitable areas that would certainly benefit from additional green space in light of climate change and UHI trends.
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Keywords
re-greening, land suitability, social vulnerability index, Northern Virginia, urban heat island, weighted linear combination