Exploring Structure Risk and Hazard Analysis Using Geographic Information and Spatiotemporal Trends

Abstract

This research reviews the past, current, and future approaches to hazard risk assessment and its use in accreditation and insurance processes for local governments. The overarching theme of this research is modeling potential risk, defined as the likelihood of an event multiplied by the consequences of the outcomes of a hazard. For the last millennia, efforts have been taken to reduce the risk of fire impacts on surrounding structures, and to reduce the potential for catastrophic spread and destruction of property and loss of life. This thesis research includes an in-depth look at past instances of large fires that resulted in large scale changes in approaches for reducing risk and hazard to structures, and doctrinal approaches for reducing risk and hazards over time. Past visualizations of hazard risk with examples form Sanborn Maps in the late 19th and early 20th century are presented, finding similarity with modern GIS-based modeling and mapping approaches. The current industry standard modeling approaches are demonstrated, using frameworks and risk metrics defined by the National Fire Incident Reporting System (NFIRS). These are used to develop optimized models for fire and structure risk in the City of Fairfax, in the context of local fire and rescue capabilities. The groundwork for future technologies is also analyzed for potential spatiotemporal modeling of an important dynamic risk factor: building occupancy. The technologies reviewed are evaluated according to their function and capability for developing a dynamic spatiotemporal model, with a goal of incorporating risk analysis into the framework of a detailed 4-dimensional structure model. The final discussion in the thesis is about strategies and methods to further model and analysis of risk from the perspective of fire response.