Non-democratic revolutions and attempts at state breakup: is there a connection?

Abstract

Not all revolutions are followed by attempts at state breakup (much less successful ones). This pattern has occurred, though, in many states where there are regionally dominant minorities (groups that area minority in a country as a whole but form a majority in a particular region) or where there are otherwise distinct regional identities. This article argues that a revolution in a country containing regionally dominant minorities or otherwise distinct regional identities that does not deliver on democratic promises can eventually lead to avigorous attempt at state breakup. The article begins with the elaboration of a five-stage theory explaining how this type of revolution leads to an attempt at state breakup. It then examines four case studies--Russia, Yugoslavia, Indonesia, and Iraq--in light of this theory. Finally, it discusses the implications of this theory for other countries with regionally dominant minorities that have experienced nondemocratic revolutions but no efforts at actual democratization.