Management Towards Success - Defense Business System Acquisition Probability of Success Model




Tzeng, Sean

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The great amounts of data and the large number of artifacts generated during the execution of defense acquisition programs serve as evidence of program progress and decision support. However, acquisition decision makers have limited means to determine what all the evidence items collectively indicate and how they can be used to support decision making in a way that ensures program success. The Defense Business System Acquisition Probability of Success (DAPS) model is an evidence-based analytical tool developed to help decision makers analyze and understand the implications of the abundance of evidence produced during a Defense Business System (DBS) acquisition. Based on observations and inferences from evidence, the DAPS can assess program performance in specific subject matter areas (Knowledge Areas) and ascertain the overall likelihood for program success through technical reviews and milestone reviews (Knowledge Checkpoints). DAPS supports acquisition decision making and is an initial step forward in improving human understanding and ability to innovate and engineer systems through evidential reasoning.



System science, Industrial engineering, Management, Bayesian Inference, Decision Analysis, Defense Acquisition, Evidential Reasoning, Project Management, Systems Engineering