Understanding the Impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the North Atlantic Subtropical High on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Variability
| dc.contributor.advisor | Burls, Natalie | |
| dc.contributor.author | Campbell, Jacob | |
| dc.creator | Campbell, Jacob | |
| dc.date | 2022-08-05 | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2023-04-12T17:57:21Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2023-04-12T17:57:21Z | |
| dc.description.abstract | Tropical cyclone (TC) frequencies in the Atlantic Ocean have multiple influences of variability. Two important ones at subseasonal timescale are the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH). A detailed analysis into the combined effects of these together could be helpful in determining higher or lower TC frequencies in the Atlantic subregions – Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, etc. – and the Atlantic as a whole. An established relationship could also be beneficial for forecasting TCs on a subseasonal timescale. This investigation identifies combinations of this corelationship utilizing contingency tables and chi-square independence analysis. It is shown there is a possible relationship between MJO and NASH where certain MJO phases modulate the NASH's location and explain some TC frequency patterns. For the Gulf of Mexico, a combination of MJO phases 1-4 and a western NASH extension results in much higher TC counts than expected for a null hypothesis of no MJO/NASH effect. For the North American east coast, MJO phases 1 through 4 and a northeast NASH extension result in the most TCs. Vertical wind shear values related to MJO phases and observed NASH locations support these findings. | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/1920/13277 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | |
| dc.subject | Tropical cyclone | |
| dc.subject | Atlantic | |
| dc.subject | Madden-Julian Oscillation | |
| dc.subject | North Atlantic Subtropical High | |
| dc.subject | Subseasonal | |
| dc.subject | Hurricane | |
| dc.title | Understanding the Impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the North Atlantic Subtropical High on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Variability | |
| dc.type | Thesis | |
| thesis.degree.discipline | Climate Science | |
| thesis.degree.grantor | George Mason University | |
| thesis.degree.level | Master's | |
| thesis.degree.name | Master of Science in Climate Science |