Schar School of Policy and Government
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Item A Complexity Approach to Evaluating National Scientific Systems through International Scientific Collaborations(2013) Zelnio, Ryan; Zelnio, Ryan; Hart, David M.This dissertation seeks to contribute to a fuller understanding of how international scientific collaboration has affected national scientific systems. It does this by developing three methodological approaches grounded in social complexity theory and applying them to the evaluation of national scientific systems. The first methodology identifies the global core-periphery structure of science at the scientific disciplinary level. The second methodology creates a multitheoretic, multilevel model for studying the evolution of international collaborations. The third methodology develops a framework that relies on identifying scientific topics with a lack of international collaboration to identify areas in which a country has emerging capabilities that may give it an advantage in the global arena. Each of these methodologies are applied to a variety of case studies and can be used in conjunction to obtain a fuller understanding that could aid the governance and management of national and international investments in science.Item A House Divided: Evolution of EU Asylum Policy after the Bosnian War(2009-05-15T19:55:06Z) Shoemaker, Melissa K.; Shoemaker, Melissa K.This dissertation examines the role of the Bosnian refugee crisis in generating support within EU Member States for a centralized, EU-level asylum policy after the 1992-95 Bosnian war. As the Bosnian war occurred on the heels of the Cold War and the signing of the Maastricht Treaty creating the European Union, this study assesses whether non-state and inter-state actors and EU institutions urging a centralized asylum policy supplanted traditional, internal sources of policy influence, such as public opinion and political partisanship. The methodology includes a review of scholarly literature, interviews with EU and nongovernmental organization (NGO) officials, press reports from all EU Member States, EU polling data, and reports from NGOs and EU institutions. The study concludes that NGOs and EU institutions lobbying for an EU-level policy as a result of the Bosnian refugee crisis carried substantial influence on EU Member State positions on such a policy, while political partisanship and public opinion did not bear out significant results.Item A Macroeconomic Analysis of Investment under Public-Private Partnerships and its Policy Implications - the Case of Developing Countries(2009-12-17T14:37:42Z) Checherita, Cristina D.; Checherita, Cristina D.The objective of the present dissertation is to propose a theoretical model of the decision to invest under a Public-Private Partnership (PPP) contract and to test empirically both the determinants of such investment and its economic impact. The basic theoretical model proposed in the dissertation outlines the conditions for the optimal timing and the scale of monopoly production associated with the decision to invest in a PPP project, in which the two partners fully cooperate. Based on the theory of irreversible investment under uncertainty, it concludes that the optimal decision to invest under a PPP depends negatively on the risk and uncertainty associated with the project, and the real cost of capital, while it could be underpinned when the government tax burden and the associated cost of taxation is high. Two extensions of the theoretical model conclude that PPP arrangements (i) have the potential to diversify risk, when risks facing the private and the public partners are correlated; (ii) may provide the private partner with the possibility to exit the contract at a later stage should economic conditions deteriorate; through contract renegotiation, explicit or implicit government guarantees, or bailing-out expectations, PPP offer a put option that induces the private partner to undertake the investment more readily or in a larger amount even under higher uncertainty. Together with the findings of the basic model, this results in an ambiguous effect of uncertainty on PPP investment. The theoretical predictions of what determines the decision to invest under PPP programs, as well as the potential economic impact of PPP investment, are tested empirically for the case of developing countries, using the World Bank database on private participation in infrastructure for the period 1990-2005. This is the largest database of this kind, which uses a consistent methodology across developing countries and time to record investment commitments in four infrastructure sectors: transportation, energy, water and sewerage, and telecommunication. As regards the determinants of investment under PPP, several predictions of the basic theoretical model are confirmed by the empirical analysis, while the evidence for the others is weaker or difficult to control for empirically. One measure of risk proves to be a robust determinant of PPP investment, that is, the political risk through its component of investment profile risk. Two other measures seem to be significantly associated with the number of PPP infrastructure projects initiated in developing countries over the period 1990-2005, that is, exchange rate uncertainty and uncertainty regarding public investment. Similarly, as indicated by the theoretical model, a higher tax burden is likely to induce governments to engage in larger PPP programs. Another prediction of the theoretical model—that the nominal lending interest rate is likely to have a negative effect on PPP investment—is weakly confirmed by the empirical model in the whole sample, but it turns more robust in the restricted sample of Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) countries where PPP programs are more developed. Finally, the empirical analysis provides evidence as to other significant determinants of PPP investment, that is: (i) the experience with PPP programs; (ii) the size of the economy; (iii) complementarity with private investment; (iv) external aid; (v) time and regional dummies. As regards the impact of PPP investment, at a macroeconomic level, larger PPP programs in infrastructure may induce, on balance, higher fiscal risks for governments in developing countries through the attached explicit or implicit contingent liabilities. However, they may also contribute to improving fiscal positions in the future through higher upfront payments to the government or by substituting part of public investment. In several countries of Latin America, private investment in roads may have been a factor associated with higher economic growth since the mid-80s. The qualitative analysis based on the literature review, as well as the results of the theoretical and empirical models, indicate that, while the experience with PPP in developing countries has been mixed, there is overall more evidence in favor of undertaking PPP investment.Item A NOVEL METHODOLOGY FOR SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF THE CONSERVATION STATUS OF THE AMERICAN EEL (ANGUILLA ROSTRATA) OVER LANDSCAPE SCALES(2019) Nicholas WalkerThe American Eel (Anguilla rostrata) was the most numerous fish on the Atlantic Coast but the population has been reduced from pristine levels as a result of overfishing, dams, pollution, invasive parasites and other factors. I present a work in four sections to provide a roadmap for restoring this species and habitat. Chapter One provides the most recent literature review on the species, including an overview of the anthropogenic factors affecting the population and potential mitigation measures. Chapter Two is a study of the American Eel fisheries in Maine and South Carolina based on published data and interviews with state agencies, commercial fishers, exporters and tribal fishers. Chapter Three is a compilation of data on American Eel in the mid-Atlantic region from 1911 to 2018, with records >3.75 million individual fish and a discussion on eel demographics over time and space. Chapter Four builds upon the dataset in Chapter Three to create a map of the watersheds of the Chesapeake Bay in ArcGIS to study the effects of dams and land use on eels. Results indicate American Eel are limited by dams and barriers blocking access to habitat, as evidenced by the high numbers of eels on the lower James and York rivers but much lower numbers upstream. It is difficult to draw conclusions however because of limitations in the datasets. The database is the largest of its kind, combining several biological and ecological factors and the GIS model presents a novel method for studying watersheds and migratory ichthyofauna.Item A Study in Direct Democracy: The Citizen Initiative & the Determinants of Voter Behavior(2009-02-03T16:28:50Z) Schum, Richard M.; Schum, Richard M.This research looked at the use of citizen initiatives in the American states to identify trends in voter behavior. The findings indicate that voters structure their choices on ballot measures with at least one thought in mind: to hold government actors and institutions accountable. While there are many factors that affect the electoral fate of an initiative, it appears that reforming government is paramount, given the prevalence of governance reforms during the period under scrutiny. This priority is often construed as a conservative bias in favor of limited government; however, the prevalence of successful policy measures that expand the size or scope of government suggests that this is not the case. Rather, two different dynamics are in play—one that tends to limit the discretion of government officials and another that tends to expand the policy scope of government.Item A TUG OF WAR FOR EFFECTIVENESS: U.S. EFFORTS TO BUILD THE REPUBLIC OF VIETNAM ARMED FORCES (1955-1973)(2020) Jerad HarperThe fragile nature of weak states, with their turbulent power structures and corresponding shortfalls in government capacity, creates natural incentives for host nation governments to intervene with efforts to politicize their security forces and restructure them for personal loyalty to government leaders rather than organizational and institutional effectiveness. However, the patron states providing security force assistance for these weak states also possess significant influence over host nation security forces. This influence comes from their ability to inject extensive resources (both financial and personnel) in numerous ways across the host nation system as well as by the “attractiveness” of their more effective and high performing organizations, which produce a degree of emulation in their host nation partner. This study directly focuses on this dynamic – a field of scholarship that has only received limited coverage. This dissertation argues that two aspects of patron state security assistance: 1) the degree of patron intervention/assistance in host nation organizational practices and 2) the nature of the commitment of patron state combat forces are critical factors impacting the relative professionalization of the host nation’s security force organizational practices (the intervening variable). Politicization by the host nation government of a weak state is considered as a constant – pulling organizational practices towards a “politicized” status. But different strategies in the two patron state security force assistance variables can serve as countervailing forces that stop or reverse such negative trends. The outcome of these competing forces upon host nation organizational practices produces variation along a spectrum of security force effectiveness, which we can measure through demonstrated performance on the battlefield. The dissertation examines the three stages of U.S. security force assistance to South Vietnam from 1955 to 1973 as a critical case to understand this variation. During the advisory period from 1955 to 1964, a steadily increasing U.S commitment of advisors and supporting air and logistics capabilities alongside a massive training and equip effort was unable to balance extensive politicization by the Diem regime. From 1965-1968 the U.S. committed major combat forces to prevent the defeat of South Vietnam but its efforts to improve security force effectiveness were limited. During the final, more “partnered” period from 1969-1973, the U.S. did produce major gains in South Vietnamese effectiveness, but these efforts were still a work in progress when the decision was made to withdraw all forces in 1973.Item Absorptive Capacity and Economic Growth: How Does Absorptive Capacity Affect Economic Growth in Low- And Middle-Income Countries?(2022) Khan, Muhammad Salar; Hart, David M.; Olds, James L.This dissertation analyzes the economic growth dynamics of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) eligible for the World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA) support. LMICs are prime candidates for development and innovation, but unfortunately, a lack of a suitable framework and poor data environments dent their value and representation. I cater to those issues by building and testing a framework of growth conditions (capacities in this dissertation) using secondary data from 82 LMICs and primary data from fieldwork in Pakistan. Specifically, I address the impact of national-level capacities on economic growth over time while controlling for confounders (including incoming skills). Capacities comprise technology and innovation, business environment and finance, human capital, infrastructure, public policy, and social policy, including welfare and inclusion. Inspired by management science and innovation system literature, the first chapter asserts the need for absorptive capacity approaches in measuring innovation and development processes in LMICs. The second chapter builds a new complete panel dataset with no missing values for 82 LMICs and establishes the reliability and suitability of the dataset in operationalizing the capacities in LMICs. The third chapter builds a framework of capacities in LMICs and tests the framework using machine learning and econometric approaches to examine how capacities affect economic growth in LMICs longitudinally. The fourth chapter classifies LMICs into five clusters to explore trends for policy implications: leading, walking, limping, crawling, and sleeping economies. Economic growth and capacities are higher in leading economies, followed by walking, limping, crawling, and sleeping. The findings highlight the criticality of infrastructure, finance, skilled human capital, and public policy capacities to enhance economic growth. Incoming flows and skills from abroad are also found to be relevant for economic growth in LMICs. Lastly, the fifth chapter conducts research through interviews and secondary content analyses in Pakistan and Bangladesh to ascertain qualitative findings. Analyses confirm the positive effects of some capacities on economic growth as well as the role of confounders in mitigating those effects. Overall, by ranking empirically important capacities for economic growth, I offer suggestions to cash-strapped governments and international organizations such as the World Bank, the UN, and the USAID to make effective investments to achieve sustainable development goals and boost prosperity.Item Addressing High Fertility and Low Women’s Work Participation: An Empirical Reflection on India(2014-10-16) Das Gupta, Debasree; Das Gupta, Debasree; Stough, Roger R.The window of a one-time economic benefit from “demographic dividend” presents itself as countries undergoing the demographic transition experience fertility decline and a rising share of women in the workforce. India is projected to enter the optimal period of that phase in 2015. Yet, in this soon to become most populous nation of the world, persisting trends of high fertility in the North and low levels of economic activity among urban women pose a dual problem. Conceived against this context, the aim of this dissertation is to investigate regional variations in aggregate level outcomes in fertility and women’s work. Using techniques from empirical spatial econometrics, fertility and women’s work is modeled across the cross of section of Indian districts in 2001. The key findings of this research highlight cultural diffusion as a salient factor for accelerating fertility decline in the North and identify a greater negative effect of fertility in cities outside of farm and nonfarm family based work. The policy implications and relevance of this research for other developing countries are discussed at conclusion.Item Affirmative Action and Mismatch at Selective Postsecondary Institutions(2015) Porter, Tameka; Porter, Tameka; Armor, David J.This dissertation assesses the extent to which affirmative action as well as enrolling in a college that matches academic ability – college matching – influence six-year graduation rates for students who started college in the 2003-04 academic year. The Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Survey (BPS) was used to estimate the number of students admitted by affirmative action and explore how matching student aptitude with institutional selectivity relates to degree completion. This study reports a negative effect on degree completion for affirmative action students and for highly qualified students who attended a less selective college.Item Alliance Structure and Transformation(2013) Buchanan, Scott C.; Buchanan, Scott C.; Goldstone, Jack A.The persistence and subsequent transformation of Cold War-era alliances have puzzled scholars for more than two decades. Using a structured, focused case study approach to examine the influences on alliance strategic decision-making processes, this dissertation argues that the transformation of alliances can be understood as a function of two processes: the first process is the tension between risk and alliance cohesion, while the second is the new patterns of interaction dynamics created by the growth of security institutions following the Cold War. Exploring these factors allow scholars to understand how interaction patterns influence decision-making processes in multilateral and bilateral alliances. After reviewing six cases, the dissertation concludes that alliance management plays a significant role in the transformation of alliances. It also concludes that multilateral alliances are more sensitive to competitive pressure from external security organizations, while bilateral alliances are more sensitive to cooperation with actors outside the alliance.Item American Muslim Organizations' Platforms and Strategies: Understanding Changes in Interest Group Identity(2017) Ibrahim, Ayah; Ibrahim, Ayah; Mandaville, PeterAmerican Muslim organizations face the challenge of representing their diverse constituency and effectively engaging with the public and policymakers. How do organizations present themselves publicly? This study endeavors to address this query and illuminate what exogenous (government policy, public opinion, and world events) and endogenous (experience and funding) factors influence the projected identity (platforms and tactics) by analyzing press releases and other publications of three prominent national American Muslim organizations between 1999 and 2013. A series of regression models finds support for socialization theories. Additionally, the organizations responded more frequently to negative policies or violent incidents, confirming a disturbance hypothesis.Item An Examination of Contingency in Synthetic Genomics Research and Implications for National Security(2015) Fye-Marnien, Shannon; Fye-Marnien, Shannon; Ben Ouagrham-Gormley, SoniaThe fields of synthetic genomics and synthetic biology have garnered much attention in the biodefense community and the general public due to their dual-use nature: their potential use for both peaceful applications and harmful purposes. Although many researchers are using the technologies to improve medical diagnostics, prophylaxes, and therapeutics, several publications have prompted concern over the technologies’ national security implications. These publications include a 2005 article that describes how researchers recreated the influenza virus that caused a pandemic in 1918, and a 2006 article in The Guardian that describes how a reporter easily ordered part of the smallpox genome from a synthetic genomics firm. These publications have spurred fears that terrorists or other malefactors could use synthetic genomics and synthetic biology to create dangerous pathogens. However, many mainstream assessments that voice these concerns assume that the results achieved in one experiment can be easily replicated if the necessary materials and protocols are provided, and that advances in synthetic genomics and synthetic biology will reduce the level of skill required to use the technologies. This runs counter to research in the field of science and technology studies, which indicate that there is a great deal of experimental contingency—unexpected technical difficulties—associated with using biotechnologies. Much of this contingency is due to the inherent limitations of working with biological systems, which are unpredictable and sensitive to their environments, as well as problems in reproducing well-established laboratory tasks in new contexts or settings. However, no study to date has evaluated the technical difficulties associated with synthetic genomics, a critical enabling technology for synthetic biology. This dissertation aims to fill this gap. I have interviewed representatives of gene synthesis firms and conducted a case study of the J. Craig Venter Institute’s synthesis of the Mycoplasma mycoides genome. These analyses will (1) illuminate what difficulties are associated with the use of synthetic genomics, and how those difficulties can affect the users of the synthesized DNA during their larger synthetic biology experiments, and (2) determine under what conditions malefactors could overcome those technical difficulties. In addition to enriching the body of literature that describes the level and type of expertise required to perform tasks in the life sciences, this dissertation ultimately aims to provide security analysts and government officials with better tools to improve threat assessments on biotechnologies, which might aid the development of more effective measures to counter perceived threats from dual-use technologies.Item An Examination of Household Health Spending and Medical-Financial Experience Circa Enactment of the Affordable Care Act of 2010(2019) Carol DavisThis dissertation uses an expansive definition of medical-financial experience (MFE) to describe the benefits health insurance, at the outset of the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Publicly-insured families generally had greater access to medical care, with lower burden and risk of catastrophic spending than uninsured families. Privately-insured families had greater access to care and better predictability of overall costs than uninsured families, but these benefits were achieved along with greater overall burden and exposure to extreme spending. Many risk-averse families with low- and middle-income attracted to the benefits of insurance were still poised to face untenable tradeoffs even after the first wave of ACA reforms. This dissertation argues for an increased focus on specific policy remedies that better align spending exposure to income for all families and that recognize the additional capabilities needed to manage the stochastic, multidimensional character of MFE.Item An Examination of Potential Medical Group Practice Participation in Accountable Care Organizations(2014-08) Anderson, Douglas Graeme; Anderson, Douglas Graeme; Koizumi, NaoruThe Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010 included legislation to create a new organizational structure, the Accountable Care Organization (ACO). This attempt to achieve the "triple aim" to improve the experience of care, improve the health of populations, and reduce the per capita costs of care establishes ACOs as a mechanism to provide coordinated care focusing on quality and outcomes in place of outputs. Medical group practices will be the focus of ACO formation. This research examines factors which make medical groups more likely to participate in ACOs. Utilizing data from a survey of medical group practices on the evolving healthcare environment, a logistic regression model is developed that indicates significant predictors of medical group participation in ACO development. Organizational size, engagement in joint venture activities, experience in Patient Centered Medical Homes, and organizational structural elements including the ability to manage clinical information, track quality measurements, and experience with payer incentive payments were all significantly associated with ACO participation. Organizational efficiency measures such as ability to track costs per episode of care were not found to be predictors of ACO participation. These results suggest an initial engagement in this new healthcare delivery model by medical groups with certain elements that align with a changed environment. Larger participation may be limited by the small size of most medical groups and the lack of internal resources to meet ACO requirements. Policy considerations to ease medical group participation in ACOs are reviewed. Future research is suggested to focus on the motivations and barriers to medical group practice participation in emerging organizational constructs for the delivery of healthcare services.Item An Organizational Approach to Entrepreneurship in the Federal Sector(2014-05) Arnold, Aaron M.; Arnold, Aaron M.; Acs, Zoltan J.Public administration research rarely takes an organizational approach to better understanding the boundaries of entrepreneurship within the Federal sector, despite the increasing role that career bureaucrats play in both the implementation and formulation of public policy. This dissertation explores the effects of organizational mission, involvement, consistency, and adaptability--scales reflective of culture, environment, and structure--on Federal employees' perceptions of innovativeness and proactiveness. A multivariate statistical analysis of Federal employee survey data finds that the role of organizational culture, environment, and structure within Federal agencies is mostly consistent with private sector research on organizational entrepreneurship. The results imply that organizational traits are important when considering management reform efforts that rely on entrepreneurial activity among career civil servants.Item Analyzing the Association Between Walkability and Regional Economic Vitality(2014) Biernacka-Lievestro, Joanna; Biernacka-Lievestro, Joanna; Fuller, Stephen S.The role of walkability is increasing in the car-oriented United States as the lifestyles and demographics of Americans change. This dissertation contributes to the emerging research on the association between walkability and regional economic vitality. This research develops new location-specific walkability indices and uses a methodological approach that accounts for the endogeneity between walkability and economic vitality and corrects for spatial dependence. The findings of the dissertation indicate that walkability is associated with higher employment in cities in the U.S. and with lower housing vacancy rates in the census tracts in the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area.Item Artificial Neural Networks in Public Policy: Towards an Analytical Framework(2020) Joshua LeeThis dissertation assesses how artificial neural networks (ANNs) and other machine learning systems should be devised, built, and implemented in US governmental organizations (i.e. public agencies). While it primarily focuses on ANNs given their current prevalence and accuracy, many of its conclusions are broadly applicable to other kinds of machine learning as well. It develops an analytical framework, drawn from diverse fields including law, behavioral psychology, public policy, and computer science, that public agency managers and analysts can utilize. The framework yields a series of principles based on my research methodology that I argue are the most relevant to public agencies. The qualitative methodology consists of an iterative approach based on archival research, peer review, expert interviews, and comparative analysis. Critically, this dissertation’s intent is not to provide the specific answers to all questions related to machine learning in public agencies. Given the speed at which this field changes, attempting to provide universally applicable answers would be difficult and short term at best. Rather, this framework focuses on principles which can help guide the user to the proper questions they need to ask for their particular use case. In that same vein, the normative principles it provides are procedurally focused in scope rather than focused on policy outcomes. In other words, this framework is meant to be equally applicable regardless of what one’s specific policy goals are.Item Artificial Neural Networks in Public Policy: Towards an Analytical FrameworkLee, Joshua A; Lee, Joshua A; Schintler, LaurieThis dissertation assesses how artificial neural networks (ANNs) and other machine learning systems should be devised, built, and implemented in US governmental organizations (i.e. public agencies). While it primarily focuses on ANNs given their current prevalence and accuracy, many of its conclusions are broadly applicable to other kinds of machine learning as well. It develops an analytical framework, drawn from diverse fields including law, behavioral psychology, public policy, and computer science, that public agency managers and analysts can utilize. The framework yields a series of principles based on my research methodology that I argue are the most relevant to public agencies. The qualitative methodology consists of an iterative approach based on archival research, peer review, expert interviews, and comparative analysis. Critically, this dissertation’s intent is not to provide the specific answers to all questions related to machine learning in public agencies. Given the speed at which this field changes, attempting to provide universally applicable answers would be difficult and short term at best. Rather, this framework focuses on principles which can help guide the user to the proper questions they need to ask for their particular use case. In that same vein, the normative principles it provides are procedurally focused in scope rather than focused on policy outcomes. In other words, this framework is meant to be equally applicable regardless of what one’s specific policy goals are.Item Assessing the Impact of Prison Siting On Rural Economic Development(2008-12-12T17:32:48Z) Holley Jr., William T.; Holley Jr., William T.From 1980 to 2002, the U.S. prison population grew from 330,000 to 1,350,000 inmates. To house these prisoners, hundreds of new prisons were constructed in non-metro counties. Most communities accepted prisons on the promise of new jobs and the hope of economic development, but little research has been done to determine the actual economic development value these institutions provide to the rural counties where they are located. In order to measure the impact of new prisons on the rural economy, this research compares indicators of economic development between non-metro counties with new prisons and similar non-metro counties without prisons. Prisons, as a public good, are limited in their ability to stimulate economic development.Item Bang for the Buck: Understanding Disparities in Conventional Strategic Signaling Capacity Acquisition Among Arms-Importing States(2022) Roberts, Lee Habib; Hunzeker, Michael A.This dissertation investigates variations in capability-based strategic signaling capacity acquisition between states who primarily import major conventional weaponry rather than indigenously producing it. The dissertation examines three potential drivers of conventional procurement efficiency derived from extant secondary literature: (1) technologically focused responses to threats posed by competitor states; (2) policy goals of vendor states; and (3) responsible government practices. The dissertation analyzes the procurement spending, inventory change, competitor arsenals and signals, vendor state goals, and government practices for four case states over the analytic window 2000-2020: (1) India; (2) Pakistan; (3) Australia; and (4) Taiwan. I use multivariate statistical analysis to identify associations for each of each of the surveyed theoretical causal accounts with variations in case state procurement efficiency, finding: (1) support for threat-focused procurement as positively associated with procurement efficiency at the 99% confidence level; (2) support for equipment origin from vendors with complex arms sales goals as positively associated with procurement efficiency at the 99% confidence level; and (3) no support for responsible government practices as positively associated with procurement efficiency. The dissertation then qualitatively analyzes each case through narrative probe process tracing, devoting a chapter to each. Finally, the dissertation illustrates four primary implications of the research: (1) high-quality estimation of undisclosed procurement spending levels by states that primarily import their major conventional weaponry; (2) educated projection of independent success/failure odds of a state’s procurement-driven signaling strategy over a given window of time against a given competitor state; (3) a clear case for re-examining the consensus on transparent and responsible procurement practice definitions; and (4) systemic depiction of vendor attractiveness and comparative advantage among the most prolific arms-exporting states for prospective importers.